Monday, November 9, 2009

The 220-215 Health Reform Vote - What's Next?

Everyone will have an opinion about the November 7 vote in the US House. Mine looks ahead to the remaining hurdles. Take heart. This is a long way from finished.

Senate and Conference Committee

HR 3962, passed by an embarrassingly slim five-vote margin, now moves to the U.S. Senate. Many national talking heads and elected officials are saying it is already dead there. We shall see. Frankly, I never believed the Democrats could pass it out of the House, given the rancor over abortion, immigration, resistance from seniors and the like.

The AARP may have sacrificed its future by backing this bill. The same is true of the American Medical Association. These groups are facing incredible hostility from their own members.

Let’s assume, however, that the Senate actually passes a bill. Its version, and that of the House, must be identical in every aspect. This includes the words, the provisions, the organization, even the punctuation. Given the mood of the Senate, if they pass anything, it will be significantly different from the House version.

If the Senate passes a bill, it will be sent to a conference committee. The conference committee includes members of the House and Senate. If the conference committee can somehow pass a bill out, it still faces immense opposition.

The conference committee reconciled bill is sent back to the House and Senate for consideration. Imagine if the conference committee bill retains abortion coverage. Or does not contain the government option. Imagine that the employer mandate falls off the table in the conference report, or strong immigration verification language is added. Conference committees often report out bills that look very little like that which Congress had already passed.

The next step is a House and a Senate vote. No amendments are allowed. They must vote it up or down. Will Pelosi be able to hold onto 218 votes? Will Reid be able to get a conference bill passed?

Bottom line. You must redouble your pressure on the U.S. Senate. Your groups must come out swinging. Your neighbors, co-workers, and friends must be alerted. There is no time to waste.

This may seem self-serving, but now is the time to load up with FACTS: Not Fiction booklets, and give them to everyone you know. Here’s the link: http://tinyurl.com/yex2eab

Never, never, ever give up.

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